Small electric vehicles are a far cry, and large electric vehicles are bound to replace as a trend

Fiat is defeated in the Chinese market, Suzuki is about to withdraw from the joint venture framework... It seems that in a flash, these small car brands that were once familiar to consumers are at the end of the Chinese car market.

Not only that, in the current subsidy policy for new energy vehicles that has been implemented, the miniaturization of electric vehicles has begun to be gradually "marginalized." According to the latest subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, vehicles with a range of less than 150 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies (the previous subsidy amount has reached 20,000 yuan), and the subsidy for models with a range of more than 300 kilometers will increase, and the government can get a maximum of 50,000 yuan. The subsidy, if roughly calculated according to the average energy density of pure electric vehicles currently on the market, the subsidy policy has basically excluded small electric vehicles.

Judging from the original intention of the subsidy policy, the relevant state departments hope to use the adjustment of the subsidy policy to further promote the technological progress of electric. But invisibly, this policy has hurt the small electric vehicle market. According to statistics in June, due to the adjustment of subsidy policy, the sales volume of small and micro new energy vehicles dropped significantly, and the proportion of sales dropped from 62% in May to 33%. Specific models include BAIC EC series, Zhidou D2, Chery eQ1, Zotye E200, etc.

Take the BAIC New Energy EC series electric vehicle as an example. The length is 3675 mm and the wheelbase is 2360 mm. The external dimensions are basically the same as the traditional gasoline car Changan Suzuki Alto. It is a typical small electric vehicle. After the New Deal, the state-level new energy subsidy was reduced to 15,000 yuan. At the same time, local government subsidy policies have been adjusted accordingly. The overall idea is based on the new energy subsidy policy of the Ministry of Finance. Under the same technical conditions, the longer the mileage, the higher the consumer subsidy amount, up to 50,000 yuan. .

Of course, in addition to the requirements for the mileage of subsidized vehicles, the new subsidy policy also lists battery energy density, charging time, and vehicle electronic control technology as important considerations, and fundamentally eliminates technical fraud by car companies. From this point of view, if small and micro new energy vehicles are to gain competitiveness, they can only be achieved through technological upgrades. At present, Changan Benben has released the new A00-class pure electric model Changan Benben EV260, and Chery has also upgraded the Chery eQ1 to increase its cruising range to 251 kilometers. But despite this, after the New Deal, the subsidy amount still fell by 22.7% year-on-year. If you add in the cost of auto companies' technology upgrades, small and micro electric vehicles have no advantage in the market.

From the perspective of the popularity of electric vehicles, 500 kilometers of cruising range will be a big short-term goal. For pure electric vehicles for general household consumption, only with a cruising range of 500 kilometers can they be converted to a certain extent with traditional vehicles. Based on the current average annual driving distance of 20,000 kilometers of traditional cars, the weekly mileage is about 400 kilometers. In theory, one tank of fuel for compact fuel cars is enough a week. If the battery life of pure electric vehicles reaches 500 kilometers in the future, they can be charged once a week, which can basically meet or approach the usage habits of traditional cars.

However, from a technical point of view, due to comprehensive considerations such as energy density and electric cost, the compact pure electric vehicles currently on the market with a cruising range of 300 kilometers have a weight of about 300-400 kilograms higher than traditional cars, which seriously affects vehicle handling. Sex. And if it is a compact + and medium and large pure electric vehicle models, under the current technical conditions, the weight of the vehicle is equivalent to that of a traditional fuel vehicle, plus national and local new energy subsidies, as well as the electrification itself. For driving pleasure, pure electric vehicles can already compete with traditional fuel vehicles of the same type in the market.

Seeing this, it is not difficult for everyone to understand why so many start-up car companies basically position their first cars as medium and large electric vehicles. For example, Tesla will soon launch the Model S long-wheelbase version with a wheelbase of more than 3 meters. The ES8 that NIO has delivered has a length of more than 5 meters and a wheelbase of more than 3 meters. Byton’s first SUV has a length of 4.8 meters and a wheelbase of 2.95 meters. These new car companies have begun to maximize the space advantages of pure electric vehicles. From the perspective of the development trend of pure electric vehicles, in the future, car companies will deploy more intelligent and technological configurations in a larger space. For example, large-screen display, more powerful in-vehicle interconnection system, automatic driving system...

Obviously, judging from the current development of electric vehicle technology, large-scale electric vehicles are inevitable in the short term.